Last Updated: 8 August 2016

Uttar Pradesh Elections Opinion Poll 2017 Survey and Predictions

The state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) is all set to see a dynamic change in Government formation as elections opinion poll results are announced. The surveys and predictions for UP Legislative Assembly election 2017 exit poll shows that BJP and Samajwadi Party (SP) will run very close to victory in upcoming elections early next year. The opinion poll surveys were conducted by ABP - Cicero, ABP News, VDP Associates, Aaj Tak News across various regions and their forecast has been shown as a result below for more information.





During the month of July 2016, various agencies took the opinion and a random survey was conducted across each district among 1000 people to predict the opinion poll of UP Elections 2017. We have mentioned a break up of each results and how they fared in the state for political parties like - Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Congress (INC) and Third parties.

UP Opinion Poll Results Conducted by ABP News


In the month of July, ABP News - Nielsen held various surveys to draw opinion poll results and conclusions based on voice of people.


Political PartyActual Vote Percent in 2012 ElectionsActual Seats in 2012 ElectionsForecast Vote Percent as per Opinion Poll (July 2016)Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll Results (July 2016)
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)15.304224120
Samajwadi Party (SP)30.102282380
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)24.808031185
Congress (INC)11.50291113
Apna Dal (AD)11--
Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)2.308--
Others1515115
TOTAL100403100403

ABP News also conducted a region wise break up of political parties opinion poll where BSP looked much stronger than BJP and others in overall UP. Here are the results of the survey:


PartyPaschim PradeshBundelkhandAvadh PradeshPurvanchalTOTAL
BJP3251964120
BSP30113163185
SP232123880
INC311813
Others20035
TOTAL1451963176403

The results are based on recent opinions put across the people when asked about their preference.

Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll Results Conducted by VDP Associates


VDP Associates and team conducted a rough analysis of 2012 elections actual vote percentage and seats analysis to forecast vote percentage as of now in July 2016 to the number of seats obtained by various political party.

The results are shown below:


PARTYVote % in 2012 ElectionsSeats in 2012 ElectionsForecast Vote % Opinion Poll - July 2016Seats as per Opinion Poll - July 2016
BJP154728.50149
BSP25.908029.80165
SP29.102242268
INC11.60288.18

They also conducted a rough to check who are the most likely contenders of Chief Ministerial candidate who will win the UP elections next year. The results of the analysis are as follows:


CANDIDATEPeople's Choice Based on Survey
Akhilesh Yadav (SP)27%
Mayawati (BSP)32%
Shiela Dikshit (INC)6%
Keshav Maurya (BJP)22%
Yogi Adityanath (BJP)4%
Others5%
Can't say4%

You can clearly see BSP taking charge here as well with BJP coming very close to them.

UP Opinion Poll Results Conducted by ABP - Cicero


Take a look at the leading front parties who will be forming their next government in UP.


PARTYGovernment Formation in UP elections 2017
BJP32%
BSP24%
SP26%
INC7%
Others4%
Can't Say7%

You can clearly see that there is a twist here - BJP is seen taking charge with most points in the table as compared to SP and BSP.

When asked whether Shri Narendra Modi led Government will lead from the front in terms of winning or not, here are the results:


Will Narendra Modi led BJP lead in terms of Government Formation in UP?
Yes56%
No40%
Can't Say4%

It clearly shows BJP is run very close to BSP in terms of giving a tough fight in upcoming year's elections.

Another survey which shows whether current Chief Minister - Shri Akhilesh Yadav would be retaining his position or not, here are the results:


Will Akhilesh Yadav retain his post as CM in Uttar Pradesh?
Yes44%
No49%
Can't Say7%

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